Soft Landing - State of the Economy follow up

One of the points Nitesh mentioned during the State of the Economy discussion yesterday was the notion of a “soft landing”. He made the point that politicians have always spoken about it, but one has never been achieved, and he said if we look back at history, the term’s popularity would be there. So I did just that.

We are in peak “soft landing” territory now, the previous peak was May 2008… Lehman Brothers went bankrupt on September 15, 2008.

Where will be be in 4 months from now? Not talking about soft landings that is for sure.

This might be a dumb question but what does soft landing mean?

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Not a dumb question at all!

A soft landing refers to the mythical (never happened before) concept that a central bank can reduce inflation without causing a recession.

In other words when the media and politicians are saying “soft landing” you can be pretty sure a recession is coming soon which they are trying to downplay.

Listening to the discussion yesterday about the phrase "Soft Landing " which is unfamiliar for me makes me realize the importance understanding the past to be innovative for the future. Yesterday was a great discussion.

I think this snapshot of history provides a useful caution about the inherent challenge of engineering a soft landing. However, it’s too simplistic to assume the current situation is destined to play out the same way as 2008 did. Assessing the unique conditions today will be important for understanding how bumpy the road ahead may be.


“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” - Winston Churchill

Very true, it won’t be the same, might be much better, might be much worse but a smooth ride it won’t be. I think the economic situation alone is super complicated but add in the recent and coming technological advancements it is mind-blowingly complicated. So I really don’t know what next year looks like. Does anyone have a view?

There are many forces tugging 2024 in different directions. While uncertainty is high, keeping an open, balanced perspective on risks and opportunities seems wise. Specific predictions are difficult but agility and resilience will be key. This is what I love about Guild community. We are here to learn and to be learned. Each one’s context would surely create a window of hope for all of us to face the tomorrow with new energy.

Interesting!! Never heard of that before. Thanks Alex :smiley: